\subsection{Positive Feedback Loops}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Positive Feedback Loops}

\begin{center}
\pgfimage[width=1.0\textheight]{Grafiken/feedback_loops}\\
Back problems $\to$\\Less exercise due increasing weight $\to$\\More back problems
\end{center}
\end{frame}

%########################################################
\section{Feedback Effects}
\subsection{Fallacies}
\frame{\frametitle{Overview}\tableofcontents[currentsection,currentsubsection]}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Reversible Fallacy}
%Reversibility & causation fallacy
\begin{alertblock}{Reversible Fallacy}
\textit{What is done can always be undone.}
\begin{center}\huge{A$\circlearrowleft$B}\end{center}
\end{alertblock}
   \begin{alertblock}<3->{}
      Lift rock $\to$ Pain $\to$ Drop rock $\to$ No pain.\\ 
   \end{alertblock}
   \begin{alertblock}<4->{}
      Fire half of your staff\\$\to$ Hire them back next day $\to$ Everything is like before.
   \end{alertblock}
\hfill\tiny{fallacy - Trugschluss}


\end{frame}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Causation Fallacy}

\begin{alertblock}{Causation Fallacy}
   \begin{quote}\textit{Every effect has a cause and we can tell which is which.}\end{quote}
\begin{center}\huge{A$\to$B}\end{center}
\end{alertblock}
   \begin{alertblock}<2->{}
      Gain weight $\to$ Increase back problem\\\hfill $\to$ Decrease exercise $\to$ Gain weight\\
      \textbf{That means:}\textit{ Weight increases Weight}
   \end{alertblock}
   \begin{enumerate}
\item<3-> Does gaining weight increase back problems?
\item<3-> Do increasing back problems cause gaining weight?
   \end{enumerate}



\note[item]{Reversible Fallacy = lift rock leads to back pain; but if you drop the rock, pain will stay}
\note[item]{Causation Fallacy = gain weight $\Rightarrow$ increase back problem $\Rightarrow$ decrease exercise $\Rightarrow$ increase weight}
\end{frame}


%########################################################
\subsection{Dangers}

\frame{\frametitle{Overview}\tableofcontents[currentsection,currentsubsection]}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Reminder}
\begin{block}{Brook's Law}
``Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later''\\
\vspace{1em}
\hfill\tiny{\textit{Frederick P. Brook's, Jr. - The Mythical Man Month 1995}}
\end{block}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}\frametitle{Brook's Law Example}
\begin{center}\pgfimage[width=0.9\textwidth]{Grafiken/brooksLaw}\end{center}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Explosion or Collapse}
\begin{block}{Explosion} %what can explode
	\begin{itemize}
		\item Amount of work to be done
		\item Rises when new unexperienced workers are added 
      \item<3> \textit{Work to be done will explode}
	\end{itemize}
\end{block}

\begin{block}{Collapse} %what can collapse
	\begin{itemize}
		\item Relative progress 
		\item The project target is not getting closer 
      \item<3> \textit{Relative progress work will collapse}
	\end{itemize}
\end{block}

\begin{alertblock}<2->{There is no difference}
   They only differ by their naming
\end{alertblock}

\note[item]{exercise-weight example on p.91}
\note[item]{explosion and collapse are both runaway conditions}
\note[item]{if work lost over 100\%, the system will "`break"'; something so big will happen, that the old model will no longer apply}
\end{frame}

%########################################################
\subsection{Prevention}
\frame{\frametitle{Overview}\tableofcontents[currentsection,currentsubsection]}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Act early, act small}
\begin{description}
\item[Self-fixing] Managers believe systems are fixed by themselves 
\item[Big Problem] Managers wait until it is too late
\item[Brooks Law] Adding People late to project\\ $\to$ Relative progress collapsing 
\end{description}
\begin{block}{}
Therefore: Act early act small
\end{block}
\begin{description}
\item[Positive Feedback Loops] are always tending to collapse/explode.
\end{description}
\begin{block}{}<2>Is there any chance it won't collapse or explode without interaction?\\
\hfill\textit{There is!}
\end{block}

%\begin{block}{Brooks's Law}
%\textit{Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.}
%\end{block}

%\note[item]{managers believe their nonlinear system will fix itself}
%\note[item]{following correcting is too big; hugh positive feedback loop; project is not only late, it will collapse}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}\frametitle{Negative Feedback Loop}
%Negative Feedback - why everything doesn't collapse
%\pgfimage{Grafiken/pfeilNegOhneSchrift}\end{center} 
\begin{center}
\pgfimage[width=0.8\textheight]{Grafiken/negative_feedback_loop}
\end{center}
\begin{itemize}
%      \item \textit{Positive} Feedback Loops leading to collapse / explosion
		\item Stabilizing loop / deviation-reducing process
      \item Example: Less appetite due back problems
%		\item<2> Involve resources and/or requirements
	\end{itemize}

\hfill\tiny{deviation - Abweichung}
\note[item]{positive feedbacks loops make model unstable; if systems stay unstable, all other management actions are only cosmetic}
\note[item]{ex.: lots of overtime = pos. feedback loops; technical reviews = neg. loops}
\note[item]{ex. for neg. loop: more errors could lead to more resources devoted to technical reviews (p.96)}
\note[item]{pattern 3: two major ne. feedback loops with which to exercise control: one involving resources and one involving requirements}
\end{frame}


%########################################################
\section{Steering Software}


\frame{\frametitle{Overview}\tableofcontents[currentsection]}
%Waterfall model

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Feedback Models}
	\begin{itemize}
      \item Models help us to understand \textbf{what} we can control
      \item Models of \textbf{how} your intervention will affect the system
      \item Keep added feedback \textbf{early and small}
	\end{itemize}

   \begin{itemize}
      \item<2-> \textit{How and when do we interact?}
	\end{itemize}
	
\note[item]{feedback over all levels; to become a culture}
\note[item]{same control model is needed at all levels (p.107)}
\note[item]{Whenever there's a human decision point in the system, it's not the event	that determines the next event, but someone's reation to that event.}
\end{frame}



\subsection{Human Decision Points}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Human Decision Points}
\begin{center}\pgfimage{Grafiken/managementArrows}\end{center}
%(methodologies)
%Steer - Human decision points
%        Notation & Example
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Brook's Law Example again...}
\begin{center}\pgfimage[width=0.9\textwidth]{Grafiken/brooksLaw}\end{center}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Human Decision Points Example}
\begin{center}\pgfimage[width=0.9\textwidth]{Grafiken/brooksLawMgmt}\end{center}
\pause
\textit{It's not the event that counts, it's your reaction to the event.}

%\begin{itemize}
%	\item Review designs and code
%	\item Update the project documentation
%	\item Create test cases
%	\item Do the preliminary work for the other workers
%\end{itemize}

\end{frame}
\subsection{Intervention Model}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Intervention Model}
%        Quote:  p.111
%        p.110 n.1-4
%        diagram

\begin{block}{Intervention Model}
	If the system is in state \textbf{B} and I do \textbf{X}, \\
	then \textbf{Y} will happen, which I hope is closer to state \textbf{G}.
\end{block}

\pause

Visualizing by answering the following questions: \\
	\begin{enumerate}
		\item (B) What is the state of the system now ?
		\item (X) What is the action I intend to take ?
		\item (Y) What will be the dynamic of a system in state B if I take action X ?
		\item Is Y closer to G ?
	\end{enumerate}

\note[item]{B = Bad, G = Good}
\end{frame}



\section{Failing to steer}
\frame{\frametitle{Overview}\tableofcontents[currentsection]}

%########################################################

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Scenarios}
\begin{block}<1->{"`I'm just a victim. I can't do anything."'}
   \begin{itemize}
		\item Identified by use of victim language 
		\item Addicted to Brook's Law
      \item \alert{Change from victim to controller}
	\end{itemize}
\end{block}

\begin{block}<2->{"`I don't want to hear any of that negative talk."'}

   \begin{itemize}
		\item Ignoring or punishing that something is tending to collapse 
		\item Bad news = Good news
		\item \alert{Necessary to make effective and early interventions}
	\end{itemize}
\end{block}

\begin{block}<3->{"`I thought I was doing the right thing."'}

   \begin{itemize}
		\item Believe in doing it right, but doing the exact opposite
		\item Driving to destruction while thinking they help the situation
      \item \alert{Layout diagram of effects}
	\end{itemize}
\end{block}

\end{frame}

%########################################################

\section{Summary}
\frame{\frametitle{Overview}\tableofcontents[currentsection]}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Summary of Part II}
   \begin{itemize}
      \item Analyse the behavior of a system,
      \item Detect its nonlinearities and loops and
      \item Plan how to make effective interventions 
      \item by using Feedback Models
   \end{itemize}

%\note[item]{Notizen}
\end{frame}
